A Multicriteria Approach to Risk Analysis Part I: Framework

Risk identification consists of defining the hazard, losscausing event E, probability P(E) of that event, perception Pe(E,P(E)) and consequences C(Pe) of that perception. Risk identification is followed by risk management, whose purpose is to mitigate the risks, for example by reducing P(E) or C(Pe) and providing suitable risk communication to the population at risk. Since managing risk has a financial cost, that cost should be traded off with risk severity or frequency hence a bi-objective model is naturally called for. Furthermore, several risks may exist, thus a risk-risk tradeoff constitutes a multicriterion decision (MCDA) procedure as shown in part I of this paper. These points are illustrated using hydrologic examples in part II.